Assumption professor works to score Worcester economy

Thomas White, associate professor in the Department of Economic and Global Studies at Assumption College, puts out the Worcester Economic Index quarterly to avoid weekly swings in the numbers.

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By Caitlin Reidy

About five years ago, a now former Assumption College provost leaned over to Professor Thomas White and suggested he create an index on the Worcester economy.

More than a dozen quarterly reports later and White's Worcester Economic Index provides a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in the city and Central Massachusetts to consistently know which way the economy is headed.

“The Worcester Economic Index helps us to have a fact-based analysis of what's going on with the economy. We don't have to play detective and there's no guesswork involved. Professor White and Assumption College deserve credit for this community benefit,” said Timothy Murray, president and CEO of the Worcester Regional Chamber of Commerce.

The WEI didn't happen overnight, though. It wasn't until 2013 after White had looked at what economic indicators he wanted to include that the first report published.

“It took a long time to gather data,” said White, associate professor in the Department of Economic and Global Studies at Assumption.

Now, every quarter for the WEI, White compiles figures like unemployment rates per household, consumer expectations, interest rates, credit indexes, as well as local leading indicator changes in online help wanted advertisements, new business incorporations and Massachusetts initial claims.

What comes out of the WEI is meant to be a scorecard for the economy, White said. The last quarter's report showed to the economy to be fairly strong, with a 2.9-percent annual rate, which was better than the previous six months (see sidebar).

“His research is important for everyone who has a stake in the local economy. His research tells us where we've been, where we are now, but also where we're going as evidenced by leading indicators,” said Louise Carroll Keeley, provost and vice president for academic affairs at Assumption.

WEI beginnings

White joined Assumption in 1994. Originally from Minneapolis, White taught in both New York and Springfield, Mass., before accepting a position at Assumption College to pursue further opportunities in the field of academia.

When doing his research for WEI, White found that no two cities were alike. He compared statistical data and unemployment rates in Worcester to other cities such as San Diego, Jacksonville, Saint Cloud and Wichita.

It's important to make a quarterly composition because economic information changes on a weekly basis, making weekly reports contradictory, he said.

White is the only contributor to the WEI and collects the data for his indicators primarily from government census agencies, such as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The collected information in the WEI includes employment and unemployment rates as well as trends in the local job market, he said.

Assumption College provides a budget for data and support, White said.

Regional importance

Worcester is often ignored next to Boston, Keeley said, which makes White's work especially significant to attract attention from the right people to the region.

“This contribution is especially important for the economic well-being of our region and attracting new investors,” Keeley said.

The Worcester chamber hired a team to analyze labor data three years ago, Murray said, showing Worcester is a diverse economy where “we may not see the highs of the economy, but we also don't see the lows.”

WEI is a huge plus and gives an extra level of analysis, which helps to benchmark where the city is at and what boards are challenged, said Murray.

Economic analysis

White said Massachusetts as a whole, similarly to the rest of the country, is more service-oriented versus manufacturing-directed.

Both White and Murray said the data from the WEI, among other sources, indicates that the healthcare industry in particular is growing and creating access to more jobs in Central Massachusetts.

“Professor White is a highly-regarded faculty member at Assumption College. He is respected by his faculty colleagues who admire him for his exemplary research, engaged teaching and consistent service, but also for the reasonableness and fair-mindedness of his judgments,” Keeley said.

The WEI is free for anyone to use and is accessible through the Assumption College website's economic indicator page. The files are available in PDF form and will possibly eventually be available in the form of a newsletter to be sent via email, White said.

Consumers are able access archives of WEI through Assumption College's website. These reports feature past figures on economic development as well as maps of business incorporations, which show markers in regions of growth.