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May 8, 2019

Employers optimistic, but watching worker shortage

Confidence among Massachusetts employers rebounded last month from a decline in March but businesses remain worried about a persistent shortage of qualified workers, analysts said.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts said its monthly Business Confidence Index rose 2.4 points to 60.3 in April, the highest level of confidence since November but still 3.9 points lower than where it stood one year ago. The index is presented on a 100-point scale, with 50 being neutral.

AIM said April's increase "reflected growing employer optimism about economic prospects for the next six months and about the future of their own companies," but analysts also noted that the survey's employment index fell 1.5 points to 54.4 last month.

"The Business Confidence Index continues to show a conflict between short-term economic optimism and long-term concern about the prospect of finding enough appropriately skilled workers to run Massachusetts businesses," Raymond Torto, chair of AIM's Board of Economic Advisors, said.

AIM President and CEO Richard Lord, in what AIM said is his "final commentary" before retiring next week, said the sluggish employment index highlights the urgency for business and government to collaborate on training and education for workers who can maintain the state's economic trajectory. 

"The persistent shortage of workers will become more severe as large numbers of baby boomers continue to leave the workforce," Lord said. "It is imperative that we address the next generation of workers, so we can extend opportunity broadly to the people of Massachusetts."

Torto said economic growth in Massachusetts "surged" to an annual rate of 4.6 percent during the first quarter of this year and national growth clocked in at 3.2 percent. Those better-than-expected growth rates have, for the time, assuaged fears of a looming downturn.

"The consensus on Wall Street is for slowing growth as the year progresses, but the economy is setting a solid and predictable pace that reassures employers that there is little immediate threat of recession," Edward Pendergast, managing director of Dunn Rush & Co., said.

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