The short-term test
Temp agencies say they're an economic barometer
For information on the state of the U.S. or Massachusetts economy, one could seek out any number of statistics.
Gross domestic product, payroll expansion, unemployment numbers, exports, imports and consumer spending all help develop a reasonably complete economic picture.
The problem is, most of these statistics are reported in the past tense.
Forward-looking
Every month, the U.S. Department of Labor issues employment stats that compare the previous month with the month before that, for example.
But there is one industry that considers itself an early indicator of economic conditions: temporary employment agencies.
According to Dave Rice, vice president of Selectstaff, a temporary staffing agency with offices in Worcester, Framingham and Leominster, "Our industry is typically a very good barometer to the economy, because it's connected to hiring."
Rice also said manufacturing could be slowly reversing the job losses of the last few years. He said he's noticed calls for temporary manufacturing employees slowly inching up.
"If business is increasing, if they're seeing a spike in demand, but they're not sure if it's going to last, businesses call temp agencies," Rice said.
In more than 20 years working in the temporary employment industry, Rice said he's come to count on "a spike in our industry, and what comes next is permanent hiring."
Slow expansion
Linnea Walsh, a Massachusetts Department of Labor and Workforce Development spokesman, said the Commonwealth's job scene bears out Rice's assertions.
"Employers want to expand, but slowly," Walsh said. "And the picture we're seeing is one of slow but steady growth."
Walsh said Massachusetts added 3,200 temporary jobs between 2004 and 2006.
Perhaps Rice is right, and manufacturing is preparing for growth. Walsh said manufacturing is "holding its own" for the moment.
Walsh said Masschusetts' manufacturing sector lost 15,000 jobs between Sept. 2004 and Sept. 2006.
"In recent months, manufacturing has been holding its own," Walsh said. "But there are fewer manufacturing jobs than there were a year ago."
She said that while certain portions of the manufacturing sector, like textiles and durable goods, are not expected to post job gains, others, like electronic components and semiconductors, are hiring in small numbers.
Temporary flexibility
Stephen Carey, director of human resources at Polar Beverages in Worcester, said Polar's use of temporary employees fluctuates with the seasons.
"When business is good, we do increase our temps," he said. "At times, we can use 20 to 30 a day. In the summer, we can use 40 to 50 a day."
Polar employs about 1,000, and Carey said it sometimes has trouble finding job candidates who can pass a drug test or read and write English.
The company uses four temporary staffing agencies.
Ralph Crowley, Polar's CEO, said things have been picking up for Polar recently.
"We have 45 openings at Polar right now," Crowley said, "and job prospects are very strong."
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