Aboard The Obama Express
For once, Connecticut played an important role in the presidential nominating process. On the Republican side, the victory by John McCain was not unexpected since he won Connecticut in 2000, and Mitt Romney’s time as governor of Massachusetts never made an impression here.
For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton suffered an upset at the hands of Barack Obama, but only in the sense that this whole campaign is turning into an upset for the Democrat who was supposed to be the inevitable nominee. Support for Obama’s campaign is expanding rapidly. He is setting the terms of the debate, and if he wins the nomination, it is hard to see how his march to the White House could be stopped. Only Hillary stands in his way.
On the morning after Super Tuesday, Clinton led in the delegate count, but Obama won in states where he wasn’t supposed to and had closed the gap significantly even in states he lost. The more time he has, the more success he has in converting voters to his side. Connecticut is a perfect example.
David Vs. Goliath
With very few specifics, Obama is offering a new way forward, and after eight years of George W. Bush, that seems to be good enough. He has framed the debate in terms of the past versus the future. It’s not a revolutionary approach, but as the youngest candidate in the race, the argument has special resonance.
Experience, especially Washington experience, is not an asset in this campaign. So in the first major contest of the election — Hillary vs. Barack — Obama has an edge. If he prevails on the Democratic side, he will almost certainly have an advantage over the new Republican front-runner Senator McCain.
Although he trails Sen. Clinton today, his campaign has the feeling of Rocky Balboa vs. Apollo Creed or the UConn men’s basketball team vs. Duke in 1999.
The favorite is on the ropes, whether she knows it or not. That’s not to say her defeat is at hand, but the trends are not going her way. For the Clinton campaign, the end of the primary schedule cannot come fast enough. This is not the race they planned for.
There are at least three other factors working against Sen. Clinton. The first is her negative approval ratings, particularly among men. The Super Tuesday exit polling showed men on the Democratic side going heavily towards Obama. This is not necessarily an anti-woman in the White House vote; it is more likely a concern about her view of politics as a lifelong battle of ideas. Voters are looking for a candidate who will get things done, not one who will fight about getting things done.
The Newness Factor
There is also the dynasty factor. Voters who are 38 years old this year have never seen an election without a Bush or a Clinton at the top of the ticket. Is there any better argument for another path? And while many Democrats have fond memories of the Clinton administration, just as many see it as a time of chaos and rancor they don’t wish to repeat.
What could derail the Obama express? Success itself. With each victory, endorsement or fund-raising record, there comes a subtle change in Obama’s rhetoric; a growing sense of inevitability that can lead to complacency and errors in judgment. That’s where the opposition will look to upend his campaign.
Clinton’s strong performance last Tuesday demonstrates her skill as a tactician. Obama needs more than the audacity of hope to defeat a woman who has learned to win one day at a time.
Dean Pagani is a former gubernatorial advisor. He is V.P. of Public Affairs for Cashman and Katz Integrated Communications in Glastonbury.
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