Outlook Positive For Mass. Economy
The latest outlook from the New England Economic Partnership (NEEP) paints a picture of slow, post-recession improvement in the Massachusetts economy that will continue through 2016.
According to the forecast, 87 percent of the 143,000 jobs the state lost in the recession have been regained, as the unemployment rate here fell from a peak of 8.7 percent in December 2009 to 6.6 percent in October.
NEEP noted that the state's economy slowed in the third quarter of this year, but said it's expected to improve at "a more moderate pace" in 2013 and then "expand robustly" in 2014 and 2015.
Overall, the Bay State economy has improved quicker than the country as a whole. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, state real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.2 percent, while U.S. real GDP grew 1.5 percent in 2011. In the first three quarters of this year, state real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.5 percent, while the U.S. real GDP rate was 1.7 percent.
When it comes to employment, NEEP said construction, professional and business services, information, leisure and hospitality; and education and health services will grow faster than overall employment through 2016. Overall employment is expected to expand at an annual average rate of 1.4 percent.
The housing market is past its lowest point, the forecast suggests, as prices have been rising slightly along with sales increasing and housing permits surpassing last year's numbers. NEEP said housing will still be more expensive in Massachusetts than in other parts of the country, but that it will be more affordable than in the mid-1990s and early 1980s.
And despite much talk of the dangers of the country approaching the "fiscal cliff," NEEP sided with Moody's Analytics in putting the probability that it will be avoided by Congress and the White House reaching a deal at 55 percent. The forecast said growth in Massachusetts will be greater in 2013 with a deal than without.
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