January 8, 2008
Economists say recession odds are split
Odds of a U.S. recession stand at about 50/50, economists told a crowd of businesspeople this morning at the Economic Summit & Outlook event at the Connecticut Convention Center - but if a recession happens, it will be a mild one.
Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at the international consulting firm Global Insight, said the collapsed housing market and high oil prices might be the "double shock" necessary for such a recession, but that an expected cut from the Federal Reserve would provide a boost.
Nick Perna, economic adviser to Webster Financial Corp., mostly concurred with Beharvesh's views, adding that the U.S. is aided by a smaller trade deficit. The men spoke as part of the event held by the Connecticut Business & Industry Association and the MetroHartford Alliance.
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